Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
